Asteroid 2009 JF1: No Longer a Threat to Earth in 2046

We are pleased to report that the asteroid 2009 JF1, previously considered a potential hazard to Earth in 2046, will almost certainly miss our planet, according to NASA’s latest observations.

Table of Contents

Background

Asteroid 2009 JF1 was discovered on May 2, 2009, by the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona, USA. It has an estimated diameter of 130 meters (427 feet) and a mass of about 3 million metric tons. Based on its trajectory, it was initially classified as a “Potentially Hazardous Asteroid” by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).

Impact Risk Assessment

The impact risk of an asteroid is determined by several factors, including its size, speed, trajectory, and proximity to Earth. The CNEOS uses a specialized software called Sentry to calculate the probability of an asteroid colliding with our planet in the future.

In the case of 2009 JF1, the initial impact risk assessment gave it a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale (ITHS) score of 1.62e-03, which is considered “non-negligible” but still relatively low. However, as more observations of the asteroid were made, the impact risk decreased significantly.

Updated Trajectory

NASA’s latest observations of 2009 JF1, obtained from the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Mauna Kea, Hawaii, on March 4-6, 2023, allowed for a more accurate determination of its orbit and trajectory. These observations, combined with previous data from ground-based and space-based telescopes, revealed that the asteroid will not pass close enough to Earth to pose any impact risk in 2046.

According to CNEOS, the most likely scenario is that 2009 JF1 will pass by Earth at a distance of about 3.4 million kilometers (2.1 million miles) on May 6, 2046. This is about 9 times the distance from Earth to the Moon, and well outside the threshold for a potentially hazardous asteroid.

Conclusion

In summary, the asteroid 2009 JF1, previously considered a potential hazard to Earth in 2046, will almost certainly miss our planet. The latest observations by NASA have allowed for a more accurate determination of its trajectory, which shows that it will pass by Earth at a safe distance. While there are many other asteroids and comets that could potentially pose a threat to Earth in the future, we can rest assured that 2009 JF1 is not one of them.